Dr Lwaitama's 3 questions regarding Twaweza's findings

Bukanga · 2015-09-25T14:58:11+00:00

Azaveli Lwaitama I agree with Risha completely that on the statistical errors issue there is not much to argue against the Twaweza results. I have however three supplementary problems: (1) why did Twaweza boradcast the dissemination of the results by live television broadcast which is something they have never done before. (2) why did TWAWEZA not wish to wait till they had had another opinion survey at the end of September before they broadcast these clearly counter-intuitive opinion poll results . Delay till the end of this month, a mere two weeks away, would have allowed Twaweza to guard against having the results technically bias by the fact that an opinion survey between 19 August and 7 or 8 September would be influenced by the fact from 12 July to 4 August the public had no way of knowing Lowasa would be a Presidential candidate and that in many ways the news that he was a candidate begun to spread like fire only after the launch of the Chadema Presidential Election campaign on 29 August , more than 20 days after the end of the Twaweza opinion survey...people who are finding the Twaweza opinion poll results hard to believe are basing their doubts on impressions formed after 29 August when Lowasa's name begun to spread as a presidential candidate on everyone' lips... The TWAWEZA poll would seem to have targeted that period of more than one full month after the name of Magufuli was in the news as the unchallenged contestant of the presidential race...12 July to 19 August and almost a month (about 20 days) before Lowasa launched his official presidential campaign on 29 August. (3) Finally since most informed Tanzanians associate Twaweza with Prof Kitila Mkumbo and Hon Zito Kabwe as Twaweza research consultants, and since these two have a vested interest in ensuring that the CHADEMA Presidential candidate does not win, one thought Twaweza would state clearly that these two were not in any way involved in decisions regarding WHEN to conduct the survey and WHETHER to broadcast the results of a survey conducted in late August and early September LIVE toward the end of September just when CHADEMA's Presidential candidate would seems to have caught the public eye in the media as a possible winner of the race? Twaweza may indeed have been scientific in its conduct of the survey and the computation of its results, but can it avoid the charge of perhaps having allowed itself to be used politically by taking the decisions it took on the points have I raised above? I would love to hear to Twaweza has to say on this score. My trust in the integrity of Aidan Eyakuze is left intact but a tinny bit shaken, especially after reading Chambi Chachage's posting in Kiswahili that I attach herewith. I believe Twaweza will do its best to response to thse queries of its admirers like me. Mwl. Lwaitama

Thread starter Bukanga
Start date Sep 25, 2015

Bukanga

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Dr Lwaitama's 3 questions regarding Twaweza's findings

Bukanga

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